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Weekend Update, August 25, 2012

POSTED: August 25, 2012

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Weekend Market Analysis

With BRLI reversing Short, there are now 5 out of 12 of the new high-growth momentum stocks in downtrends. We started out with just one of the dozen Short, so in a sense, we may be seeing a fractal a larger trend, a bellwether that something bigger in the works.

My most frequently asked question, especially from new subscribers, is what trend models are the best ones to follow? Between personal accounts and my hedge fund, I have traded a diverse sampling of the models, yet I always respond with perhaps the most boring model of them all:

SPX Daily Trend Model: Year-to-Date Returns

As day-to-week-to-monthly trading systems, models like the SPX represent more than just the sum of their net gains or losses over the course of the year. What the calculations placed on the chart above can’t describe are the intangibles that provide this kind of trading system with so much explosive potential:

(1) The SPX Trend Model has a built-in and fail safe exit for all Long trades. Since the markets have twice in the past decade fell anywhere from 50% (SPX in 2007) to 90%(Nasdaq in 2001), a buy and hold investor would have gotten decimated. That is virtually impossible with these Trend Models;

(2) It is just because of the dynamic set out in (1) above that investors can cautiously utilize the additional returns power provided in leveraged ETF’s. The SPX chart doesn’t include leveraged results for a buy and hold strategy because without knowing when to exit, trading with leverage is way too much of a risk, it is the proverbial risk of ruin;

(3) It is not too much of a stretch to expect another one of those 50%-90% debacles to be coming our way early in this decade. Each month that passes without fulfilling that expectation brings the market that much closer to the cliff;

“Since 1982, 18 of the biggest [market] turns have been in July, August, or October.” – Elliott Wave International, Short-term update, August 24, 2012.

(4) The three major index trend models, DJIA, SPX & NASDAQ are designed for and have effectively identified every major trend change of the markets, both in real time since the inception of this service as well as in historical applications to all major market trend changes of the past 30 years;

(5) When (not if) that horrific bear market asserts itself, these trend models WILL do their jobs and identify the turn early enough not only to avoid any significant losses, but to enable traders who are so inclined to profit handsomely from whatever economic mayhem may rain down upon us.

These same 5 intangibles apply equally in relevant part to commodity markets. The past 40 years have seen spectacular bull markets in gold, silver, oil and real estate. Each one of these sectors has also seen an equally spectactular fall from grace. The profits that were made being on the right side of those trends created fortunes for those who had the foresight to be in the right place at the right time.

That is the greatest intangible of them all, an assurance that when the time comes, that you are in the right place at the right time. Interim profits or losses notwithstanding, the big payoff is still ahead.

I guarantee it.

GLD Weekly Trend Model

USO Weekly Trend Model


DJIA Monthly Trend Model


This Weekend’s Trend Models

August 24, 2012

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